A poll is only as good as its methodologies. Understanding a poll’s methods and techniques—how researchers collect responses, phrase questions, analyze data, and account for bias—is critical for knowing if you can trust that it accurately captures a population’s sentiments. A poll that relies on shoddy methodology and loaded questions should not inspire confidence.
Conducted in the month leading up to the 2024 general election, this biennial survey was administered by UW’s School of Politics, Public Affairs, and International Studies in partnership with the Wyoming Survey & Analysis Center. While it claims to measure residents’ attitudes toward government, elected officials, candidates, and current policy issues, it instead exemplifies the pitfalls of poor polling. The survey should be defunded as it produces biased or misleading data, relies on inconsistent methodology, and lacks transparency. Yet its findings—often making bold claims about controversial topics—were uncritically reported as fact by the media, despite falling short of basic methodological and ethical standards.
Released in the run-up to the November general elections, media outlets and advocacy groups on the political left immediately used the survey to promote to the public that Wyoming is turning away from its conservative values. Their claims were then parroted through social media.
Honor Wyoming had a professional research company examine the survey and they found numerous concerns across several variables that render the results unreliable and should be rescinded by the university. From a changing sampling methodology and method of fielding the survey to biased and leading questions, the survey does not qualify as proper output from an academic institution.
Perhaps most troubling, the University of Wyoming, whose survey claims to rely on tracking data over time, has failed to produce past years’ survey results despite repeated inquiries. This lack of transparency is especially concerning given the University’s frequent emphasis on long-term data in its reports and public messaging. The public is left without any ability to ascertain whether opinions reported as fact (on topics from abortion to election integrity) truly are what the University and biased media reporting outlets claim.
Is this just incompetence—or something more?
Methodological issues
Let’s begin with the survey’s questionable methodology. The 2024 Election Year Survey relies on a combination of telephone interviews and a self-administered web survey. In past surveys, researchers used only telephone interviews to elicit answers from respondents. For the 2024 survey, the survey included responses from those who were mailed or emailed a link to an online version of the questions. Although online surveys can be a legitimate way of surveying a population, it is important to keep in mind that there are often stark demographic differences between individuals who take online surveys and those who do so over the phone (especially over landlines).
Further alarming, the 2024 live-interviewer options were not provided with certain answer options that those utilizing the web link were given.[1] This leads to inconsistent answers being used to come to the same conclusion. This, combined with sample population demographics changing from phone based to internet based responses, gives little reason to think the survey tells an accurate story of changing political and cultural beliefs over time.
Take the survey’s finding that roughly 20% of Wyomingites identify as members of the Democratic Party for example. Question 55 asks, “Generally speaking, do you usually think of yourself as a Republican, a Democrat, an independent, or what?” 142 of the 723 respondents chose Democratic Party label.
Given voter registration data and the Republican Party’s recent electoral victories in the state, it seems unlikely that a fifth of Wyoming identifies with the Democratic Party. According to the Wyoming Secretary of State, registered Democrats declined by 40% between 2016 and 2025, from roughly 19% of registered voters to 12%. Recall that conservative candidates had their best election cycle in history in 2024, with voters rewarding incumbents who supported pro-life legislation, the 2nd Amendment, the integrity of elections, and other conservative issues.
While it’s possible that 20% of Wyomingites think of themselves as Democrats, the survey has to be weighed against other data points and trends in the state. The Election Year Survey paints a picture of Wyoming that is at odds with voter registration data and conservative electoral successes this year. Without that context, you might reasonably conclude Wyoming is trending liberal.
One way to judge the accuracy and reliability of the Election Year Survey’s most recent results would be to judge them against previous years’ survey data. Good luck accessing that data, though! We reached out to two University officials about accessing the historical data and were rebuffed on both occasions. “Such reports,” the University’s Wyoming Survey & Analysis Center told us, “do not exist.”
Another problem with the Election Year Survey is its length. It is well known in the professional polling world that lengthy surveys increase the chance that respondents skip questions or answer carelessly. The Election Year Survey is 75 questions! And, indeed, if you look at the results, you find that the number of “missing” respondents reaches as many as 213 of the 739 as you get deeper into the survey.
Loaded questions
Polling is an art as much as it is a science, especially when it comes to wording the questions that respondents answer. Language is finicky, and there are numerous ways of wording or framing questions. But the goal of all polling should be accurate measurement. You’re more likely to get an honest answer from a simple, straightforward question. Loaded—or biased—questions, on the other hand, lead respondents to answer in a particular way. In some cases, loaded questions are simply the result of not thinking hard enough about the wording. But in other cases, loaded questions are loaded by design.
The Election Year Survey is rife with questions that rely on emotional trigger words—words designed to stir up feelings in the respondent. Take the survey’s question about abortion:
Q52: There has been some discussion about abortion during recent years. Which one of these opinions best agrees with your view?
Answers:
-
- By law abortion should never be permitted
- The law should permit abortion only in case of rape, incest or when a woman’s life is in danger.
- The law should permit abortion for reason other than rape, incest, danger to the woman’s life, but ony after the need for the abortion has been clearly established.
- By law, a woman should always be able to obtain an abortion as a matter of personal choice.
Answer #4, in using the phrase “matter of personal choice,” is framed in a way sympathetic to pro-abortion advocates. What would the results have looked like if the University of Wyoming had instead given respondents the following option: By law, a woman should always be able to end the life of an unborn child.
Does that nuance matter? It surely does when media outlets use the survey findings to convince Wyomingites that opinion on abortion is more liberal than it really is. WyoFile, in a story last year about the survey results, states: “Comparing this year’s responses to the last four decades of Wyoming election-year surveys, the rate of respondents who want all abortions to be illegal — 10.5% in the latest survey — has remained fairly steady.” A claim that runs contrary to election trends in the state as staunch pro-life lawmakers continually get rewarded by voters.
Given the biased survey question, we can assume that figure understates the percentage of the population that opposes abortion and believes the law should protect babies. WyoFile’s claim that the percentage of citizens who believe abortion should be illegal has remained steady over time is, as we discussed above, unsubstantiated, since the University of Wyoming will not release historical data. We contacted WyoFile, and they referred us to the University. The University, you’ll recall, says the data does not exist.
Here’s another loaded question:
Q112: Select the answer below that best expresses your overall opinion. Would you say that requiring firearm sales to be reported and recorded is:
- A very good idea
- A good idea
- Neither a good or bad idea
- A bad idea
- A very bad idea
This question is written in the passive voice, and it omits one very salient detail—the actor to whom Wyomingites would be reporting their firearms! Are we talking about reporting our firearms sales to our spouses—or to a government bureaucrat? The answer matters! By leaving out the detail about who is reporting to whom, the question comes across as abstract and noninvasive. It certainly doesn’t automatically raise 2nd Amendment concerns.
Overall, these biased questions add up into a larger narrative of misinformation.
Flaws undermine confidence in the survey
Over the years, the survey—including its methodologies and questions—has changed, undermining the project’s integrity. But the University and biased media outlets sell it as a rigorous and accurate reflection of Wyomingites’ beliefs and values over time.
Newspapers, political campaigns, and advocacy organizations love a good poll. Polls confer legitimacy—they sound precise, scientific, and authoritative. Reporters mine surveys to support or challenge anecdotal observations, while advocacy groups seize on numbers that, unsurprisingly, suggest their causes are wildly popular.
Polling can help us understand the world—or manipulate it. As Mark Twain famously put it, “There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.” The phrase endures because it reflects a reality we’ve all witnessed: statistics—and by extension, polls—can be powerful tools, not just for insight, but for influence.
If the University of Wyoming’s Survey & Analysis Center is going to claim the survey as the benchmark of voter sentiment in the state on critical issues, it must do better. The survey is produced at taxpayer expense, making the shifty, ever-changing methodology and manipulative questions even less defensible. Wyomingites deserve a legitimate survey that reflects what citizens actually believe—and institutions that are transparent enough to show their work.
[1] https://www.uwyo.edu/news/_files/documents/2024/11/perceptions-of-uw-issue-brief-final.pdf
[2]https://wyofile.com/wyoming-abortion-views-hold-steady-as-lawmakers-pursue-more-restrictions/